With the 2024 Masters just two weeks away, it’s a good time to look at the odds leading into the event. There are some fascinating numbers right now along with a few on the oddsboard that just do not make any sense whatsoever.
There is some level of predictability with Augusta National given it’s the only major championship held at the same course every year, but based on how drastically players’ scores can differ from one year to the next, there’s no telling what will happen or who will slip on the green jacket in April.
The last two champions, Scottie Scheffler and Jon Rahm, were their respective year’s hottest golfers at the time of their victories. And if that trend holds, it’s possible Scheffler picks up his second green jacket in a three-year span. At least that’s what the odds tell us is most likely to happen.
Let’s break the oddsboard down into a few different categories and evaluate the players in each. Keep in mind that odds do not only imply who is most likely to win, they take into account who is receiving the most action from bettors.
The favorite
Whew … this is getting close to a Tiger Woods-like number. It’s difficult for me to remember anyone who was less than 5-1 odds for a major championship in recent years. It may have happened; I just don’t remember it happening.
It’s a deserved number, both from a performance and popularity standpoint. Scheffler is attempting to win his third consecutive tournament this week at the Houston Open, and he has thrived at Augusta National in recent years. He leads the world in strokes gained from tee to green, on approach and overall this year, and he leads everyone in the Masters field in strokes gained approach and from tee to green over the last three years (since stats have been kept). If Scheffler’s name was “Spieth” or “McIlroy,” these odds would probably be even lower.
Other favorites
- Rory McIlroy: 10-1
- Jon Rahm: 12-1
It’s difficult to tell with Rahm because the numbers are more opaque on LIV Golf, but McIlroy has been a bit all over the place (for him) so far this season. I would have these flipped. Still, both are probably deserving at these numbers as they’re two of the greatest modern scorers at Augusta National.
Semi favorites
- Will Zalatoris: 18-1
- Viktor Hovland: 20-1
- Jordan Spieth: 20-1
- Brooks Koepka: 20-1
- Xander Schauffele: 22-1
- Joaquin Niemann: 22-1
- Ludvig Aberg: 22-1
This is where it starts to get a little crazy to me. I have no problem with Zalatoris at 18-1. He’s been incredible at Augusta National with a runner up and a T6 in his career. But Koepka at 20-1, barely ahead of Schauffele, Niemann and … first-timer Ludvig Aberg? Did Koepka not lead after three days here last year? Does he not have a pair of runner-up finishes at Augusta? Is he not a five-time major winner? Is he not the reigning PGA champion? That 20-1 number seems so bizarre when compared with everyone else surrounding him.
Just a bit outside
- Patrick Cantlay: 25-1
- Justin Thomas: 25-1
- Hideki Matsuyama: 25-1
- Cameron Smith: 28-1
- Wyndham Clark: 28-1
I know Clark is a first-timer at the Masters, but he’s a proven major winner and would have gone back to back at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and Players Championship if not for Scheffler. That 28-1 number seems way too high.
Longer shots
- Dustin Johnson: 35-1
- Collin Morikawa: 35-1
- Shane Lowry: 40-1
- Max Homa: 40-1
- Matt Fitzpatrick: 40-1
- Jason Day: 40-1
- Cameron Young: 40-1
- Bryson DeChambeau: 40-1
- Tony Finau: 45-1
- Sam Burns: 45-1
There is so much value. A pair of two-time major winners at 35-1, plus Jason Day (historically excellent at Augusta and playing good golf right now) at 40-1, Cameron Young (top 10 at the Masters last year), DeChambeau (a U.S. Open champion) and Finau (three top 10s at the Masters)? That’s some solid value a good ways down the board.
These will change over the next few weeks, but everything revolves around Scheffler. If he putts well, he’ll likely win. Because the odds are structured as such, you can find a ton of value with guys who could win if he doesn’t putt well. Koepka (20-1), Matsuyama (25-1), Clark (28-1) and Young (40-1) are currently those guys to me.