2024 Masters Predictions: Nine Trends From The Last Decade To Help Pick This Year’s Green Jacket Winner

It’s here and it’s beautiful. The 88th Masters has arrived with 89 players beginning the week dreaming of slipping on the green jacket. These aspirations are still alive and well before the first tee shot is hit at Augusta National Golf Club, the annual host for the year’s first major championship.

Unlike the PGA Championship, U.S. Open and The Open, the Masters returns to the same venue each year. While there are some small tweaks to the course here and there, the core of Augusta National has stood the test of time with those who have solved the riddle once before generally having the answers year after year.

It’s why Phil Mickelson, without a semblance of form, finished runner-up to Jon Rahm in last year’s tournament at 52 years old. It’s why his final-round 65 was the best final round of his Masters career in his … *checks notes* … 30th appearance. It’s why old-timers like Fred Couples and Tom Watson have also made early charges in their 50s. It’s why you can never rule anyone out at first glance.

Course knowledge is required, but it is just one part of this equation. While the ghosts of past Masters champions pop up on the leaderboard every now and then, only those truly comfortable with all facets of their game will have the staying power to see it through until Sunday evening. A player doesn’t just fall into winning the green jacket (just ask Dustin Johnson), he often trends towards it and peaks at the precise right time (you can also ask Johnson about this).

Watch all four rounds of the 2024 Masters starting Thursday with Masters Live as we follow the best golfers in the world through Augusta National with Featured Groups, check in at the famed Amen Corner and see leaders round the turn on holes 15 & 16. Watch live on CBSSports.com, the CBS Sports App and Paramount+.

Let’s take a look back at the 10 most recent winners of the Masters and identify what trends exist as we attempt to whittle down the field of 89 players to pinpoint this year’s champion.

1. What’s your age again?

It has been 38 years since a 46-year-old Jack Nicklaus donned his sixth green jacket and captured the last of his 18 major championships. Nicklaus became the oldest winner in tournament history with the win. Over the last 10 years, the average age of the winner has been a shade under 31 even with champions like Dustin Johnson (36), Sergio Garcia (37) and Tiger Woods (43). Since Johnson’s win in 2020, the last three winners have all been under the age of 30. Mickelson threatened last season with his runner-up finish, but it is safe to assume that if you’re over the age of 46, you probably aren’t winning.

Eliminated: Fred Couples, Zach Johnson, Phil Mickelson, Tiger Woods, Vijay Singh, Mike Weir, José María Olazábal

2. Maybe don’t remember your first time

Only three players have ever won the Masters in their first attempts: Horton Smith in the first Masters, Gene Sarazen in 1935 and Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979. While a debutant has not won in 45 years, there have been a number of close calls in recent memory with Jordan Spieth (2014), Sungjae Im (2020) and Will Zalatoris (2021) threatening. With such a large class and names like Wyndham Clark and Ludvig Åberg trending, there is a chance this streak comes to and end this year. But, until then … 

Eliminated: Wyndham Clark, Ludvig Åberg, Akshay Bhatia, Nicolai Højgaard, Austin Eckroat, Eric Cole, Denny McCarthy, Stephan Jaeger, Jake Knapp, Nick Dunlap, Peter Malnati, Grayson Murray, Matthieu Pavon, Adam Schenk, Ryo Hisatsune, Lee Hodges, Santiago de la Fuente (a), Christo Lamprecht (a), Neal Shipley (a), Jasper Stubbs (a)

3. It’s a steady climb

They say Augusta National is an acquired taste. One may not understand the nuances the first or second time around, but once there is a game plan, all that’s left on the table is execution. Seven of the last 10 Masters champions had at least one top-five finish in their Masters careers before donning the green jacket with all 10 having previously collected a top-40 result. 

Eliminated: Max Homa, Cameron Davis, Kurt Kitayama, Adrian Meronk, Erik van Rooyen

4. What have you done for me lately?

Each green jacket winner since 2014 has notched a top-15 finish on the PGA Tour or DP World Tour in a stroke-play event over the calendar year leading up to the Masters. Seven of those had already entered the winner’s circle on the year — see Rahm in 2023, Scheffler in 2022, Johnson in 2020 and Spieth in 2015 — while eight had found a spot on the podium in the form of a top-three result. We’ll use that same top-15 cutoff point for LIV Golf events as well. 

Eliminated: Rickie Fowler, Stewart Hagestad (a), Viktor Hovland, Tom Kim, Camilo Villegas, Bubba Watson, Danny Willett, Gary Woodland

5. Major-championship pedigree

There have been a number of first-time major winners who have broken through at Augusta, but none have come without some prior experience on a comparable stage. Eight of the 10 most recent Masters champions had at least a major runner-up result already to their name with all 10 having a T6 finish or better. In the year prior to winning, four of the last 10 collected a runner-up finish in a major championship while nine had a top-15 finish. 

Eliminated: Byeong Hun An, Sam Burns, Ryan Fox, Adam Hadwin, Si Woo Kim, Taylor Moore, Joaquin Niemann, J.T. Poston, Nick Taylor, Sahith Theegala

And just like that, we have eliminated 50 players … 

6. Let’s get technical 

Strokes-gained data can be a beautiful thing. In the calendar year leading up to their respective Masters coronations, all 10 champions were averaging at least +0.67 strokes gained per round with the mean of the group coming in at a whopping +2.17. Only four players in the world are currently averaging more than +2.00. 

It was not Rahm (+2.75), Scheffler (+2.50) nor Spieth (+2.38) who boasted the most impressive metrics ahead of their victories, rather it was Watson (+3.02) and Johnson (+3.91) who eclipsed the three-stroke hurdle. A couple past Masters champions and one major name will unfortunately be leaving us here.

Eliminated: Keegan Bradley, Thorbjørn Olesen, Luke List, Min Woo Lee, Sungjae Im, Sepp Straka, Justin Rose, Charl Schwartzel, Patrick Reed, Brooks Koepka

7. Speak softly and carry a big stick

Off-the-tee numbers are the most predictive indicator of success in the world of golf; the best golfers in the world currently are the best drivers of the ball in the game. The same rings true at Augusta where the last 10 winners were averaging at least +0.60 strokes gained off the tee per round in the calendar year of their victory. Patrick Reed was the low man of this group with +0.14 strokes gained off the tee per round, which will allow a couple names to slip by. 

Eliminated: Lucas Glover, Brian Harman, Tyrrell Hatton, Cameron Smith

8. Iron it out

Augusta National caters to some of the best iron players in the world (like Woods). Over the last three months, Scheffler has been the best in this category (+1.57 strokes gained approach per round), while a number of big names have struggled with their scoring clubs. The past 10 winners were averaging a minimum of +0.40 strokes gained approach per round — a bar some historically strong approach players haven’t come close to sniffing.

Eliminated: Collin Morikawa, Emiliano Grillo, Harris English, Matt Fitzpatrick, Russell Henley, Jason Day, Jordan Spieth, Tommy Fleetwood, Patrick Cantlay, Jon Rahm, Dustin Johnson, Bryson DeChambeau

9. There needs to be a Plan B

Stuff hits the fan during major championships, and the Masters is no different. More times than not, there will be some sort of turbulence over the course of 72 holes, and a player’s short game will be tested. Whether it was Scheffler’s chip-in on No. 3 in the final round of 2022 or Danny Willett’s up-and-down on the 71st hole in 2016, an around-the-green presence is required in some shape or form. This is where some popular names simply fall short of the +0.20 strokes gained around the green clip from the prior 10 winners. 

Eliminated: Rory McIlroy, Shane Lowry, Will Zalatoris, Cameron Young, Corey Conners, Adam Scott

So where does that leave us?

From a field of 89 golfers, only seven — Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, Hideki Matsuyama, Justin Thomas, Tony Finau, Chris Kirk and Sergio Garcia — remain. I’ll admit that I am very surprised by a few of these!

Scheffler, Schauffele and Matsuyama were always going to be shoo-ins; you probably don’t need me telling you that. Thomas is interesting in that he will have a brand-new caddie on the bag and most of his good play came earlier in the year, similar to Kirk winning at Kapalua in the PGA Tour’s season opener. Finau is finding his groove and Garcia just lost in his second playoff of the year on LIV Golf, but neither has been super reliable with the putter.

Let’s just put it this way: If you gave me a fair price on Scheffler, Schauffele and Matsuyama versus the field, you’d have my attention.