Who will win 2026 Open? Scottie Scheffler’s woes, Rory McIlroy’s schedule and an all-time week for England

For being the final major championship of the season, the 154th playing of The Open Championship may be exactly that: wide open. Returning to Royal Birkdale for the first time since 2017, The Open heads to Southport, England, where the local contingent will be rooting on their own, while those from the other side of the Atlantic Ocean will be hoping to follow the fate of the last three Champion Golfers of the Year.

Since the 2020 event was canceled, four of the last five winners have represented the red, white and blue with Scottie Scheffler raising the Claret Jug the last time out at Royal Portrush. Scheffler’s name would fit right in with champions at Royal Birkdale, which has a long list of Americans like Arnold Palmer, Lee Trevino, Johnny Miller, Tom Watson, Mark O’Meara and Jordan Spieth, complementing the rest that features Peter Thomson (twice), Ian Baker-Finch and Padraig Harrington.

All of these players conquered The Open at Royal Birkdale, and while on paper it may seem like just another major championship in a quick stretch from April to July that is chock full of them, this event requires a specific type of appetite to feast like these players once did.

Bad bounces will be had, golf balls will trundle for what feels like forever and awkward stances will be a constant sight that makes yoga instructors salivate.

The physical game is just one line item on the recipe for cooking up an Open champion, however. What’s in between the ears holds the rest of the ingredients — determination, patience and acceptance among them — amid a week that will be trying, testing and a true delight to watch unfold.

Let’s get into all the storylines and more for the 154th Open.

Scheffler’s defense

This time last season, Scheffler could do no wrong. From the Masters through The Open, the world No. 1 played in nine tournaments, won a major championship and two other titles, and finished no worse than T8 in any event. This year, during that same time on the calendar, Scheffler has played in nine tournaments, finished runner-up four times and placed outside the top 10 a few times, including this past week at the Scottish Open, where he missed the cut for the first time in four years.

The question that has been following Scheffler all season — fair or not — will inevitably make its way to The Open given the proximity of his early exit to the final major championship of the season: what’s wrong? And it is that area — proximity — where eyeballs should zero in on.

Scheffler’s proximity from 2024-26

A lightly run Rory

Rory McIlroy is three tournaments short of where he was in 2025 heading into The Open, as the energy largely feels better (both literally and figuratively). His motivation was clear last year, heading into an Open hosted by his home country (Northern Ireland), and although this one will be held in England, his intentions remain to get his hands on golf’s most coveted trophies.

McIlroy’s main issue amid this light schedule has not been his play in the first two rounds. He was in with a chance heading into the weekend at the U.S. Open before rounds of 73-73. A similar story unfolded at the Scottish Open, where he shared the lead at the 18- and 36-hole marks before finishing just inside the top 10.

“The benefits are seeing my family more,” McIlroy said at the Scottish Open. “Feeling like I have a bit more balance in my life. And then the challenge is, I feel like even though I have played pretty sparsely over the past few months, the starts of my tournaments have all been really good. 

“So it’s not like I’m coming in and starting slow, and the little bit of extra practice I think actually helps in some ways. I think one of the other benefits for me, like I’m nearly 20 years into this, and I need to do everything I can to keep my enthusiasm as high as possible, and playing a lighter schedule definitely does that.”

Full-circle moment?

Not one player has finished inside the top 10 of all three major championships this season. Want to know who is the closest? That would be Justin Rose, who has finished in T3, T10 and T11 across the first three majors, with the close call coming at the Masters in April. He entered the second nine on Sunday commanding a two-stroke lead.

Closer to 50 than he is to 40, Rose’s window is more closed than open, but if there was ever a week for the golf gods to answer his prayers (and that of many fans), one has to imagine it would happen at Royal Birkdale, the site of where he burst onto the scene as an amateur in 1998, finishing in a tie for fourth place.

English golf

It may be the group’s best chance in a really long time. In a year that has been ripe for the picking, English golfers have done their fair share of damage with Matt Fitzpatrick leading the way in terms of wins on the PGA Tour, Rose running away at the Farmers Insurance Open, and yeah, Aaron Rai taking down the PGA Championship. Then there’s Tyrrell Hatton, who won on LIV Golf recently and Mr. Reliable himself, Tommy Fleetwood, who is the hometown kid this week in Southport.

Leading into the Scottish Open, English golfers represented five of the top 21 players in the Official World Golf Rankings and three of the top 10. This is not only important because The Open is being held in England, but also because an Englishman has not raised a Claret Jug since Nick Faldo in 1992. Faldo is a three-time Champion Golfer of the Year and the only Englishman since Tony Jacklin in 1969 to claim The Open.

For the first time

Not since 2014 has a major season come and gone without a first-time major winner emerging. Rai made sure that streak continued with his epic win at the PGA Championship, but some will be hoping for a year like 2022 when more than one first-timer came through in clutch time.

The Open represents the final chance to immortality on the calendar, and there are a number of candidates who have eyes on etching their names into history. Surprisingly enough, most of them have had their opportunities in this major championship as well with Cameron Young, Chris Gotterup and Tommy Fleetwood all having podium finishes in recent memory.

Notable players without a major championship

A baked-out Royal Birkdale 

There have been … uh … a lot of changes to Royal Birkdale since 2017. Trying to keep up with the times, the R&A has suggested that these modifications have been made to host The Open more effectively.

On the outward nine, the par-4 5th and the par-3 7th have been redesigned with new tee boxes. Both holes will play shorter as well. Coming in, the old par-3 14th has been removed, while the old 15th has been renumbered as the 14th. There is a new par 3 on No. 15 with some changes to Nos. 16 and 18.

The biggest catch of the eye ball will come on No. 13. Yes, that 13th — the 13th where Spieth soared one right and made that infamous bogey en route to victory. All of this comes as heat and lack of rain continue to bake out Royal Birkdale, setting up a yellow, crispy, baked-out test.

Nearly a decade ago

If you are a Spieth fan, more than a decade has been taken off your life over the past nine years. (Or maybe that was the life that was taken off from the back nine at the 2017 Open alone.) Taking a three-stroke lead into the final round, Spieth reversed into a share of the lead walking off the 4th green.

That is where he stood alongside Matt Kuchar on the 13th tee before the bogey of all bogeys occurred. Taking an unplayable, hitting his third over a dune from the driving range alongside the equipment trucks and somehow dropping only a single shot, Spieth summoned magic only he seemed able to conjure together nine years ago en route to his third and most recent major title.

He finished his final round bogey, birdie, eagle, birdie, birdie, par for a ho-hum three-stroke victory — the same margin he led by heading into the final round. He has won only two times since his rollercoaster rally at Royal Birkdale, and recent form doesn’t suggest another is coming anytime soon, but a return to the site nevertheless evokes emotions, memories and, if lucky, some game from the past.

The greatest day in English sports history?

The ol’ English double is possible this week. The England men’s national team has played its way into the semifinals of the World Cup for the fourth time, while a bustling bunch of Englishmen on the golf course have made their way into a tier of true contenders for The Open held in England.

If the England national team were to make it to finals on Sunday, which is scheduled to start 3 p.m. ET, reports have suggested that the R&A already plans to move tee times up. This could coincide with a day where another drought comes to an end — that of English golfers in The Open.

Come Sunday, perhaps it will be coming home in more ways than one.