Usually, the PGA Tour event that follows the British Open each year has one of the weakest fields of the season because all the top guys are resting up after the final major and gearing up for the FedExCup playoffs. The tournament in that unfortunate spot again this week is the 3M Open from Minnesota’s Twin Cities area. And it doesn’t have a great field, yet world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler is playing the event for the first time, in a fairly big surprise. CBS and Paramount+ have weekend coverage.
Scheffler is a +260 favorite at DraftKings, and the second favorite in the event, defending champion Kirt Kitayama, is way down at +2250. You don’t see that type of odds gap often, because usually guys like Scheffler don’t play these tournaments. Shoot, no other player is below +415 for simply a top five (Scheffler -154) and only five other guys are priced +265 or better for a top 10 (Scheffler -290).
Scheffler is the lone world top 10 in the field and comes off a tie for fourth at the British Open – his 10th top-four finish this year. He still has just the one victory, though, back in January in his season debut, but Scheffler remains the Tour leader in Strokes Gained: Total
According to the Minnesota Star Tribune, Scheffler will become only the fifth world No. 1 to play a PGA Tour event in the state since the world golf rankings began in April 1986. None of the previous four were able to win. This tournament only dates to 2019, but there have been a few major championships held in Minnesota as well (Hazeltine).
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Speaking of major championships, Sunday’s surprise winner at the British Open, New Zealand’s Ryan Fox, originally was in the field but withdrew. Can’t really blame him celebrating that first major title. Major winners rarely play the next week – only U.S. Open champion Wyndham Clark did this year, and that was because the Travelers Championship the following week was nearby and a Signature Event.
There has never been a repeat winner of the tournament after Kitayama finished at 23-under 261 last year, one up on Sam Stevens. Kitayama got into contention by shooting a career-low and tournament-record-tying 60 on Saturday and then followed with a 65 on Sunday for his second career PGA Tour. He has yet to add No. 3 but is having a pretty good season, with four top-10 finishes.
Kitayama is your +1800 favorite on the “Without Scheffler” market to win. He is one of four former tournament champions in the field, along with Lee Hodges, Tony Finau and Cameron Champ. Americans have won the event every year but one, and a USA winner is a -295 favorite with No at +220. There aren’t a ton of Europeans in the field, so a Euro winner is +950, with No at -2200.
The longest active streak of making the cut in PGA Tour events is on the line with Japan’s Hideki Matsuyama at 28 tournaments in a row. He’s -300 to make another Friday and +2800 to win his first Tour event since the Sentry to start the 2025 campaign. Matsuyama hasn’t played this event since finishing 30th in 2023.
TPC Twin Cities is an easy track that will take at least 15 under to win if previous history is any indication. It’s a par 71, 7,431 yards located in Blaine, about 15 miles from Minneapolis–Saint Paul. Somehow, there is yet to be a playoff in the tournament (three total one-shot wins) and that there will be this week is +400, with No at -650.