If there was ever a season when numbers were required while attempting to identify a major championship winner, it would be 2026. With no repeat winners in signature events, no repeat winners on LIV Golf and no repeat winners in the major championships (and The Players Championship), the field has never been more wide open for a U.S. Open, especially one at a golf course such as Shinnecock Hills.
While U.S. Opens have tended to the big and brawny, J.J. Spaun proved last season that finesse and precision is still required. Out toughing the field at the toughest golf course in the world in Oakmont Country Club, the reigning champion showed there may be more than one way to skin a cat in this championship.
Past winners at Shinnecock Hills include Brooks Koepka, Retief Goosen and Raymond Floyd, but let’s not forget about Corey Pavin, too — one of the most accurate of his time.
What’s great about this confluence of events — parity and golf course — is that it actually falls in line with a broader trend in major championships away from Augusta National Golf Club.
At the Masters, those who have won once can win twice, i.e., Rory McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler. But just take a peek elsewhere in the world of major golf. The last seven PGA Championship winners have been different. The last five U.S. Open winners have been different. And the last 17 (!) Open winners have been different.
The point: It’s tough to pick a winner whether amongst friends, in an office pool or with a small wager for entertainment.
That’s where we come in with some trends from the past decade that can hopefully lead you down the right road.
1. Official World Golf Rankings
The main cutoff point for qualification into the U.S. Open is the top 60 in the OWGR, but when it comes to the cutoff of being a potential winner, it gets trimmed to the top 40. Each of the last 10 winners have been inside the top 40, although we are stretching the limits in recent years with Wyndham Clark and Bryson DeChambeau both being outside the top 30, and Spaun filing in at world No. 25. Until that dam is broken, we will use it to seal off potential candidates from the rest of the field.
Eliminated: Those players ranked outside the top 40 in the OWGR, notably Rickie Fowler, Jake Knapp, Gary Woodland, Adam Scott, Jordan Spieth, Brooks Koepka, Alex Fitzpatrick, Joaquin Niemann and Dustin Johnson
2. Courses change, stakes do not
Shinnecock Hills has hosted only five prior U.S. Opens with 2018 serving as a potential indicator of what’s to come for those in the field. Koepka took the cake by week’s end, but there was also Tommy Fleetwood, Patrick Reed and Johnson all in the mix. There’s a chance repeat offenders have a slight edge, but quality across various U.S. Open setups remains the key barometer. Although both Clark and Spaun were without top-25 finishes in prior U.S. Opens, that mark has been influential in identifying potential champions in majors.
Eliminated: Alex Smalley, J.T. Poston, Maverick McNealy, Nicolai Højgaard, Kurt Kitayama, Jacob Bridgeman, Kristoffer Reitan, Ryan Gerard, Sepp Straka
3. What have you done for me lately?
If they had not won by June, the last 10 champions had come damn near close to it as all them had at least one podium result on their season résumé before raising the U.S. Open trophy. This includes Spaun’s playoff loss to McIlroy at last year’s Players and DeChambeau’s close call at the PGA Championship behind Xander Schauffele the year prior.
Eliminated: Keegan Bradley, Patrick Cantlay, Sam Burns, Alex Noren, Justin Thomas, Tommy Fleetwood, Harris English
And just like that, from a field of 156 players, the list of potential winners is down to 24 …
4. Let’s get technical
Outside of Gary Woodland’s +0.75 strokes gained per round mark in the three months leading up to his win at Pebble Beach, every other winner had averaged at least +1.25 strokes gained per round. Matt Fitzpatrick, DeChambeau, Clark and Spaun hovered close to +2.0, while Jon Rahm was the belle of the ball with his +2.55 average. In total, the last 10 winners averaged +1.82 strokes gained per round — the number we will be using as our benchmark, much to the dismay of many recent major champions and many potential contenders.
Eliminated: Si Woo Kim, J.J. Spaun, Gary Woodland, Chris Gotterup, Justin Rose, Aaron Rai, Min Woo Lee, Viktor Hovland, Bryson DeChambeau, Tyrrell Hatton, Robert MacIntyre, Ben Griffin, Hideki Matsuyama
5. Keep calm and carry a big stick
When looking back at where these champions had thrived the most, off the tee jumps off the page. Drivers like Johnson, Koepka, Rahm, Woodland and DeChambeau lead the charge in terms of distance, while accuracy was the poison of choice for Spaun. As a group, +0.50 strokes gained off the tee per round was cleared by nine of them, which we will use as our final cut.
Eliminated: Wyndham Clark, Collin Morikawa, Matt Fitzpatrick
That leaves us with … eight golfers
Odds via Caesars Sportsbook
- Scottie Scheffler (9/2)
- Rory McIlroy (9-1)
- Jon Rahm (10-1)
- Xander Schauffele (19-1)
- Cameron Young (20-1)
- Ludvig Åberg (26-1)
- Russell Henley (40-1)
- Patrick Reed (50-1)
Six of the top eight favorites on the odds board are represented here. Not exactly surprising anyone with names like Scheffler and McIlroy. There will be plenty of time to discuss them this week, so let’s shine the light on those two outliers in Henley and Reed. Henley comes in off his win at Colonial where he seemed to discover his confidence while in contention. That could pay big dividends if true for one of the sturdiest presences in golf, who is only getting better in major championships.
Perhaps the most interesting name in this list — and maybe even the field — is Reed. The 2018 Masters champion’s last two starts were, well, the Masters and the PGA Championship. He’s gearing up for a busy summer, but during a U.S. Open week which can only be described as grueling, maybe the well-rested grinder that is Reed can transform into Captain America in a solo act.
Who will win the 2026 U.S. Open, and which longshots will stun the golfing world? Visit SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard, all from the model that’s nailed 17 golf majors heading into the weekend, including the past five Masters, and find out.