In a year where world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler has not gotten across the finish line with the regularity fans have grown accustomed to and world No. 2 Rory McIlroy has played sparingly, the 2026 Open feels more wide open than those of the past. Players like Aaron Rai at the PGA Championship and Wyndham Clark at the U.S. Open have surprised some, leaving the final major of the year anyone’s best guess.
That is where the trends from the past 10 Open can come in handy. While some have been easy to identify, such as Scheffler last year or Xander Schauffele the year prior, there were Brian Harman in 2023 and Zach Johnson in 2015, who had yet to win that calendar year.
The last time players returned to Royal Birkdale in 2017, Jordan Spieth raised the Claret Jug. Ranked No. 2 at the time, Spieth arrived in England a few weeks after his win at the Travelers Championship, a handful of months after winning at Pebble Beach. Spieth joined a list of winners at Royal Birkdale that included, most recently, Padraig Harrington, who remains the most recent to successfully defend his Open title.
That points us to plenty of different names, but which one will be the right one by week’s end?
With all that in mind, let’s take a look back at the 10 most recent winners of The Open and identify the trends that have led to Champion Golfers of the Year being crowned as we attempt to narrow the field of 156 players to pinpoint this year’s champion.
1. Official World Golf Rankings
The last two winners were top two players in the world at the time, Schauffele and Scheffler, but there was a bit more variance in the years prior. Harman ranked No. 26, falling in line with the likes of Johnson (No. 25) and Shane Lowry (No. 33) at the time of their victories. As we have gone through three major championships this season, we’ll give the cutoff a wider berth and start with the top 50 players in the OWGR.
Eliminated: Those players outside the top 50 in the OWGR — notably Jordan Spieth, Jason Day, Adam Scott, Brian Harman, Alex Fitzpatrick, Max Homa, Jordan Smith, Sungjae Im, Brooks Koepka
2. Course change, stakes do not
Royal Birkdale hosts The Open for the 11th time and for the first time since Spieth claimed victory in 2017. While the course has played in a variety of ways (as all do) in its previous hosting duties and has a number of new-look holes for this championship, competence in this links-golf setting remains a necessity. Outside of Collin Morikawa in 2021, who was making his debut, nine of the last 10 champions had a prior top-20 finish in an Open.
Eliminated: J.J. Spaun, Ben Griffin, Sam Burns, Ludvig Åberg, Min Woo Lee, Kristoffer Reitan, Ryan Gerard, Akshay Bhatia, Jacob Bridgeman, J.T. Poston, Kurt Kitayama, Maverick McNealy, Bud Cauley, Alex Smalley, Jake Knapp, Sam Stevens, Joaquin Niemann, Marco Penge
3. What have you done for me lately?
At this point in the season, most players either have it or don’t. It is true that a final push towards the final major championship can make a year, but, largely, breadcrumbs from the previous six months suggest whether a player will contend. Eight of the last 10 Open winners raised a trophy already that season, including Scheffler, Cameron Smith, Francesco Molinari and Spieth more than once. All 10 had a podium finish to their credit, which we will be using.
Eliminated: Justin Thomas, Alex Noren, Harris English, Patrick Cantlay, Keegan Bradley
4. Major championship pedigree
There have been some surprises in The Open, but none that have come completely out of left field over the last decade. Five of the last 10 winners had already won a major championship, while the other five had already finished runner-up. That is the type of experience required at an Open.
Eliminated: Russell Henley, Chris Gotterup, Si Woo Kim, Tyrrell Hatton, Daniel Berger
5. Let’s get technical
That has whittled the field of 156 players down to just 22. Now, let’s get into how these former champions were actually playing. They all averaged at least 1.30 strokes gained per round (Smith) in the three months leading up to the tournament. Molinari and Morikawa averaged more than two strokes gained, while Schauffele and Scheffler averaged north of three! The average amongst the 10 is slightly over 2.0 strokes gained per round, which we will use for our final hurdle.
Eliminated: Tommy Fleetwood, Jon Rahm, Collin Morikawa, Cameron Young, Viktor Hovland, Justin Rose, Aaron Rai, Xander Schauffele, Tom Kim, Patrick Reed, Shane Lowry, Robert MacIntyre, Rickie Fowler, Nicolai Højgaard, Bryson DeChambeau, Hideki Matsuyama, Sepp Straka, Gary Woodland
That leaves us with … four golfers
Just as it did a year ago, the trends leave us four golfers, and unfortunately, there are no fun surprises: The top three players in the world and the most recent major championship winner.
- Scottie Scheffler: 7-1
- Rory McIlroy: 17/2
- Matt Fitzpatrick: 15-1
- Wyndham Clark: 33-1
Over the last three months, Scheffler is the top iron player (and overall), McIlroy is the top driver, Fitzpatrick is the top chipper and pitcher, and Clark is the best with his total short game. So at least that is sort of fun! Scheffler is still in top form, McIlroy must always be considered, and the Englishman is my pick for the week (while Clark isn’t getting the love he probably deserves from the markets).
Who will win the 2026 Open Championship, and which longshots will stun the golfing world? Visit SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard, all from the model that’s nailed 17 golf majors heading into the weekend, including the past five Masters, and find out.