Ask 100 different people who they would like to win this year’s Masters, and you may get 10-20 different answers. With a relatively limited field of 92 players, the variety of selections is nevertheless higher than in years past.
The last four Masters have been defined by the best player of the early part of the season asserting his dominance at Augusta National to claim the first major of the year. Scottie Scheffler did this twice. Jon Rahm won three times before his Masters victory in 2023. Rory McIlroy won a signature event and The Players Championship before completing the career grand slam last year.
It has been a relatively simple task to sort a player as either a contender or a pretender, but the 2026 Masters is proving to be more difficult. There has been only one multiple-time PGA Tour winner so far this season (Chris Gotterup), and he arrives having never played Augusta National in competition. Bryson DeChambeau has won twice on LIV Golf, but will his underlying metrics hold up under scrutiny?
The staples from the PGA Tour, meanwhile, have been nowhere to be seen as Scheffler, McIlroy, Players Championship winner Cameron Young and last year’s runner-up, Justin Rose, have not teed it up since TPC Sawgrass. That is where Collin Morikawa was forced to withdraw; his health is a question in itself.
CBS Sports aims to provide answers to the simple question of, “Who will win the Masters?” strictly through trends and statistical analysis. The numbers will do the talking as we identify this year’s most likely Masters contenders.
Let’s take a look back at the 10 most recent green jacket winners and identify the trends that tie them together as we whittle down the field of players to pinpoint this year’s champion.
1. What’s your age again?
The 2026 Masters represents the 40th anniversary of one of the most memorable of all time. Jack Nicklaus, at age 46, fired a second-nine 30 in the final round to claim his sixth and final green jacket. While there have been legends who have found magic around Augusta National since, it has been difficult to sustain across four rounds. If a player is over the age of 46, unfortunately, he is unlikely to win the first major of the season.
Eliminated (7): Fred Couples, Vijay Singh, Mike Weir, Jose Maria Olazabal, Angel Cabrera, Zach Johnson, Bubba Watson
2. Maybe don’t remember your first time
Only three players have won the Masters in their first attempt. Fuzzy Zoeller was the most recent to do so back in 1979. (This will be the first Masters since Zoeller’s passing in November 2025). Zoeller actually stands apart from the short pack as Horton Smith won the first Masters and Gene Sarazen claimed the second. Debutants are arriving unafraid and with plenty of confidence as Sungjae Im, Will Zalatoris and Ludvig Åberg have all threatened the last few years, but until another first-timer wins, they will be eliminated by this process.
Eliminated (22): Michael Brennan, Jacob Bridgeman, Ethan Fang (a), Ryan Gerard, Chris Gotterup, Ben Griffin, Harry Hall, Jackson Herrington (a), Brandon Holtz (a), Mason Howell (a), Casey Jarvis, Naoyuki Kataoka, John Keefer, Fifa Laopakdee (a), Tom McKibbin, Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen, Andrew Novak, Marco Penge, Mateo Pulcini (a), Kristoffer Reitan, Samuel Stevens, Sami Valimaki
3. It’s a steady climb
Augusta National is kind to its past champions, and it is kind to those who have figured out the puzzle a few times before. There is nuance, subtleness and a certain style of golfer who can traverse his golf ball through the Georgia pines. Seven of the last 10 Masters champions had at least one top-five finish in their Masters careers before donning the green jacket. All 10 previously collected a top-40 result.
Eliminated (6): Wyndham Clark, Nico Echavarria, Jake Knapp, Alex Noren, Carlos Ortiz, Aldrich Potgieter
4. What have you done for me lately?
Seven of the last 10 green jacket holders had already won in the same season by the time they arrived at Augusta National. The last four — Scheffler (twice), Rahm and McIlroy — all boasted multiple wins before the first major of the season. Hideki Matsuyama was the only champion without a top-10 finish before his victory, but he did have a top-15 result, which we will use as our cut-off point for this exercise.
Eliminated (7): Keegan Bradley, Brian Campbell, Harris English, Max Greyserman, Aaron Rai, Charl Schwartzel, J.J. Spaun, Danny Willett
5. Major championship pedigree
Nothing can compare to recent experience. All 10 of the Masters champions this past decade had at least one top-15 finish in a major championship the year prior. Willett finished T6 at the 2015 Open, while champions like Patrick Reed, Tiger Woods and Scheffler all finished runner-up at various majors the year before slipping on the green jacket.
Eliminated (19): Akshay Bhatia, Daniel Berger, Patrick Cantlay, Tommy Fleetwood, Ryan Fox, Sergio Garcia, Rasmus Højgaard, Dustin Johnson, Michael Kim, Kurt Kitayama, Min Woo Lee, Shane Lowry, Hideki Matsuyama, Maverick McNealy, Cameron Smith, Sepp Straka, Nick Taylor, Justin Thomas, Gary Woodland
And just like that, we have already eliminated 61 players, more than two-thirds of the 2026 Masters field!
6. Let’s get technical
The last four Masters winners averaged at least +2.50 strokes gained per round the year of their victories. (Spoiler: Only two players are above this threshold.) However, Matsuyama was the lowest man of the past decade, coming in at +0.67, so we will use his number as the benchmark, given how wide open this contest feels.
Eliminated (6): Sungjae Im, Matt McCarty, Max Homa, Tyrrell Hatton, Brian Harman, Davis Riley
7. Speak softly and carry a big stick
Many of the best golfers in the world are currently the best drivers of the ball. Past champions such as McIlroy, Scheffler, Johnson and Garcia were averaging around +1.0 strokes gained off the tee per round in the calendar year of their victory. Driving opens up the rest of one’s game, but it is not impossible to get around Augusta National in a wayward manner as Reed checked in at +0.14 strokes gained off the tee per round leading into his win — the number we will use to eliminate a few fan favorites.
Eliminated (3): Jordan Spieth, Viktor Hovland, Justin Rose
8. Iron it out
Augusta National is often called a second-shot golf course, and the list of winners backs up this sentiment. As he was heading into this tournament in 2025, Morikawa is the top player in the world in terms of strokes gained approach this season, while several notable names have experienced sluggish starts with their irons. The past 10 winners averaged +0.85 strokes gained approach per round with Garcia the worst at +0.41 — a bar a certain two-time winner just fails to clear.
Eliminated (6): Haotong Li, Scottie Scheffler, Bryson DeChambeau, Sam Burns, Jason Day, Robert MacIntyre
9. There needs to be a Plan B
More often than not, there will be some turbulence over the course of 72 holes of major championship golf, and a player’s short game will be tested. McIlroy called his pitch into No. 3 the most important shot of his final round, and Scheffler experienced a similar moment on the same hole en route to his first Masters title. The last 10 winners averaged +0.52 strokes gained around the green with Matsuyama surprisingly setting the cutoff point at +0.22 per round.
Eliminated (9): Russell Henley, Cameron Young, Collin Morikawa, Xander Schauffele, Brooks Koepka, Adam Scott, Nicolai Højgaard, Corey Conners, J.J. Spaun
So … who will contend at the 2026 Masters?
Of the 91 players, just six golfers met all nine of the criteria points laid out. They include two of the last three champions in reigning green jacket holder Rory McIlroy as well as 2023 champion Jon Rahm. Those two are not the only Masters winners who make up the short list, however, as 2018 champion Patrick Reed remains as well. That’s three different Masters champions playing golf on three different golf tours.
As for the challengers — those without a green jacket quite yet — it should be no surprise to see Ludvig Åberg’s name among this group. The Swede has played two Masters and has given himself two legitimate chances at winning the tournament. Former U.S. Open winner Matt Fitzpatrick does not have the most eye-popping history at Augusta National, but the quality with which he navigates golf courses is tough to ignore.
Speaking of hard to ignore, Si Woo Kim is generally regarded as one of the most fun watches on the PGA Tour. The former Players Championship winner contended at last spring’s PGA Championship and has found his touch on the greens around Augusta National in the past.