If Sam Burns is able to finish on top of the leaderboard this week at the 2023 Valspar Championship, he’ll become the first golfer to win this event in three consecutive years. Burns will have to stave off a number of serious contenders if he wants to rewrite the history books. Justin Thomas, Jordan Spieth, Matthew Fitzpatrick, Keegan Bradley and Tommy Fleetwood are among the experienced players looking to dethrone Burns and win the Valspar Championship 2023.
Play gets underway from the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort on Thursday, March 16. Thomas enters this week’s event as the 10-1 favorite according to the latest 2023 Valspar Championship odds. He’s followed by Spieth (12-1), Burns (15-1) and Fitzpatrick (18-1) on the PGA odds board. Before locking in your 2023 Valspar Championship picks, be sure to see the golf predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
SportsLine’s proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been red-hot since the PGA Tour resumed in June of 2020. In fact, the model is up over $8,300 on its best bets since the restart, nailing tournament after tournament.
McClure’s model predicted Jon Rahm to finish on top of the leaderboard at the 2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions, the American Express and the Genesis Invitational. The model also included J.T. Poston in its best bets to win the 2022 John Deere Classic. That bet hit at +5500, and for the entire tournament, McClure’s best bets returned almost $1,100. At the 2022 Masters, McClure’s model was all over Scottie Scheffler’s first career major championship victory heading into the weekend.
In addition, McClure’s best bets included Collin Morikawa winning outright at the 2021 Open Championship, even though he was listed as a massive 40-1 long shot. The model was also all over Rahm’s (10-1) first career major championship victory at the 2021 U.S. Open. Rahm was two strokes off the lead heading into the weekend, but the model still projected him as the winner.
This same model has also nailed a whopping eight majors entering the weekend. Anyone who has followed it has seen massive returns.
Now that the 2023 Valspar Championship field is locked, SportsLine simulated the tournament 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard.
Top 2023 Valspar Championship predictions
One major surprise the model is calling for at the Valspar Championship 2023: Burns, the two-time defending champion and one of the top favorites, stumbles this week and barely cracks the top 10. Burns got off to a fast start in 2023, finishing T-11 or better in two of his first three starts.
However, Burns has struggled mightily in recent weeks, missing the cut in two of his last three starts and finishing T-35 at the Players Championship. Burns’ recent struggles can be directly attributed to his iron play. The 26-year-old enters this week’s event ranked 164th in greens in regulation percentage (64.37%) and 186th in strokes gained: approach to green (-.658). He also ranks 194th on the PGA Tour in approaches from inside 100 yards. He’s not a strong pick to win it all and there are far better values in the Valspar Championship 2023 field.
Another surprise: Justin Rose, a 27-1 longshot, makes a strong run at the title. Rose has a much better chance to win it all than his odds imply, so he’s a target for anyone looking for a huge payday.
Rose certainly has the game to finish near the top of the leaderboard this week. The 42-year-old has won 11 times on the PGA Tour, which includes a victory at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am earlier this season. Rose is currently ranked 16th in driving accuracy percentage (66.02%), 21st in scoring average (69.43) and 22nd in birdie average (4.27). If he’s striking the ball well this week, he’ll have a great shot at finishing on top of the leaderboard at the 2023 Valspar Championship. See who else to pick here.
How to make 2023 Valspar Championship picks
The model is also targeting four other golfers with odds of 25-1 or longer who will make surprising runs. Anyone who backs these longshots could hit it big. You can only see the model’s PGA picks here.
So who will win the Valspar Championship 2023? And which longshots stun the golfing world? Check out the 2023 Valspar Championship odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected 2023 Valspar Championship leaderboard, all from the model that’s nailed eight golf majors, including last year’s Masters.
2023 Valspar Championship odds, field
See the full Valspar Championship 2023 picks, best bets, and predictions here.
Justin Thomas +1000
Jordan Spieth +1200
Sam Burns +1500
Matthew Fitzpatrick +1800
Keegan Bradley +2200
Tommy Fleetwood +2400
Justin Rose +2700
Adam Hadwin +2800
Denny McCarthy +3000
Davis Riley +3100
Brian Harman +3100
Justin Suh +3700
Wyndham Clark +4000
Ben Griffin +4100
Brandon Wu +4100
Gary Woodland +4100
J.T. Poston +4200
Maverick Mcnealy +4800
Byeong Hun An +5000
Jhonattan Vegas +5000
Aaron Rai +5000
Nate Lashley +5000
Victor Perez +5000
K.H. Lee +5000
Taylor Moore +5000
Joel Dahmen +5500
Will Gordon +5500
Stephan Jaeger +6500
Ben Taylor +6500
Trey Mullinax +6500
Luke List +6500
Ryan Gerard +6500
Ben Martin +6500
Tyler Duncan +6500
Beau Hossler +6500
Nick Taylor +6500
Robby Shelton +6500
Joseph Bramlett +8000
Matthew NeSmith +8000
Webb Simpson +8000
Garrick Higgo +8000
Lee Hodges +8000
Alex Smalley +8000
Akshay Bhatia +8000
Ludvig Aberg +8000
S.H. Kim +9500
Charley Hoffman +9500
Eric Cole +9500
Dylan Frittelli +10000
Pierceson Coody +10000
David Lingmerth +10000
Troy Merritt +10000
Kramer Hickok +11000
Erik Van Rooyen +11000
Russell Knox +11000
Patrick Rodgers +11000
Adam Schenk +11000
Cameron Champ +11000
David Lipsky +11000
Greyson Sigg +11000
Nick Hardy +12000
Sam Ryder +12000
Carson Young +12000
Chad Ramey +12000
Chesson Hadley +14000
Mark Hubbard +14000
Sam Stevens +14000
Stewart Cink +14000
Kevin Kisner +14000
MJ Daffue +14000
Nico Echavarria +15000
Harry Higgs +16000
Michael Kim +16000
Adam Long +16000
Kevin Tway +17000
Matt Wallace +17000
Martin Laird +17000
Peter Malnati +17000
Harry Hall +17000
Carl Yuan +17000
Luke Donald +19000
Dylan Wu +19000
Patton Kizzire +19000
Matthias Schwab +21000
Vincent Norrman +21000
Ryan Moore +21000
Kevin Streelman +21000
Erik Barnes +21000
Ryan Armour +21000
Austin Cook +21000
Doug Ghim +21000
Brian Stuard +21000
Augusto Nunez +21000