There are eight limited-field, big-money Signature Events on the PGA Tour this year, and the penultimate one is this week’s Memorial Tournament, Jack Nicklaus’ event that tees off Thursday from Muirfield Village outside Columbus, Ohio. No player has won the same Tour event three years in a row since 2011, but that drought could end Sunday with Scottie Scheffler.
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The world No. 1, per usual, is a ridiculous price to win, currently +310 at DraftKings, with No. 2 Rory McIlroy next, way down at +1050. In 2024, Scheffler finished at 8-under 280 and a shot up on Collin Morikawa, while last year the American shot 10-under 278 and beat Ben Griffin by four. The 2025 tournament was clinched on the 17th when Scheffler was only up two. He found the fairway on that hole and made par, while Griffin was way left and finished with a double-bogey.
Two years ago, Scheffler and Morikawa dueled throughout the back nine, and it came down to the 72nd hole. Incidentally, Morikawa is the only one in the world’s top 10 not playing this week as he deals with an injury. He won the 2020 Workday Charity Open on this course.
This week, Scheffler tries to become the first golfer since Steve Stricker at the John Deere Classic from 2009-11 to three-peat at an event, and only the fourth player to do so in the past 40 years, along with Tiger Woods (six times) and Stuart Appleby. Scheffler and Woods are the only players to repeat here, with Tiger (five) and Kenny Perry (three) as the lone three-time winners of the event. Scheffler’s last attempt at a three-peat came at the 2025 Players Championship after he became the first player in tournament history to go back-to-back. But he finished T-20 in 2025.
For just a top five, Scheffler is -154, which is also a ridiculous price, and the Over/Under on his finishing position is 4.5. But he is the first golfer to finish in the top three in four straight starts at the Memorial, as he was third in 2023 and 2021 (he didn’t play the event in 2022). Scheffler was also the only golfer with four top-three finishes at any PGA Tour event from 2021-25.
Scheffler’s scoring average of 70.4 in this event is the best in history with a minimum of 20 rounds played. Scheffler has gained 12.26 strokes tee-to-green in his past three starts at the Memorial, most by any golfer at any event in that span. At BetMGM, Scheffler is taking by far the biggest handle (32.1%) and tickets (14.3%) to win. He is also the most-wagered player for a top-five finish.
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There are 72 players in the field and there is a 36-hole cut to the top 50 and ties. Scheffler will go off at 1:35 p.m. ET on Thursday with reigning PGA Championship winner Aaron Rai of England – twosomes not threesomes because of the smaller field. Scheffler has made a PGA Tour-best 75 straight cuts and has four top-three finishes in his past five starts overall but hasn’t won on Tour since January. Scheffler had multiple wins entering the Memorial each of the past four seasons. He has made 75 consecutive cuts, the longest active consecutive streak on Tour.
To lead after Round 1 and win, Scheffler is +1550. Amazingly, the 18-hole leader has never won the Memorial Tournament, and Fuzzy Zoeller in 1989 is the only player to lead after each of the first three rounds, but he finished second.
The Nicklaus-designed Muirfield Village Golf Club is a par-72 at 7,569 yards and has hosted every year since 1976. Muirfield Village had the highest average score to par (+1.38) of any non-major course last season. I’ll simply be playing an American to win at -175.
Since 2015, a player from the USA has won here every year except 2020 (Jon Rahm) and 2023 (Viktor Hovland), and neither of those champions are in this week’s field. McIlroy (+1050) is playing and has 13 starts at the Memorial, most at any event without a win in his career. He is taking the second-most tickets and handle (both 8.0%) at the book.
Cameron Young (+1475) is third in both at 7.4% of bets and 5.0% of money. McIlroy is the +850 favorite on the winner without Scheffler prop and also is taking the most action at BetMGM to be the first-round leader at +1600. Young at +1400 on the win without Scheffler prop is taking the most bets and second-most money.
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