The first two rounds of the 2023 Open Championship are officially in the books. American Brian Harman (-10) holds a commanding five shot lead atop the 2023 Open Championship leaderboard, with Tommy Fleetwood (-5), Sepp Straka (-4), Jason Day (-3) and Min Woo Lee (-3) within striking distance. Harman played exceptionally well on Friday, shooting a bogey-free 65 at Royal Liverpool.
According to the latest 2023 Open Championship odds from Caesars Sportsbook, Harman is the +150 favorite (risk $100 to win $150), with Fleetwood (+400) next in line. Other 2023 Open Championship contenders include Rory McIlroy (11-1) and Jordan Spieth (16-1). Before locking in any 2023 Open Championship weekend picks, be sure to see the 2023 Open Championship predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
SportsLine’s proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been red-hot since the PGA Tour resumed in June of 2020. In fact, the model is up almost $10,000 on its best bets since that point, nailing tournament after tournament.
McClure’s model predicted Jon Rahm would finish on top of the leaderboard at the 2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions and The American Express. And at the 2023 Masters, the model was all over Rahm’s second career major victory heading into the weekend. Rahm was two strokes off the lead heading into the third round, but the model still projected him as the winner. It was the second straight Masters win for the model, which also nailed Scottie Scheffler winning in 2022.
In addition, the model included Nick Taylor in its best bets to win the 2023 RBC Canadian Open. That bet hit at +7000, and for the entire tournament, McClure’s best bets returned nearly $1,900. McClure’s best bets also included Jason Day (17-1) winning outright at the 2023 AT&T Byron Nelson, even though he hadn’t won a PGA Tour event since 2018.
This same model has also nailed a whopping nine majors entering the weekend. Anyone who has followed it has seen massive returns.
Now that the cut has been made at the 2023 Open Championship, SportsLine simulated the final two rounds 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected 2023 Open Championship leaderboard.
Top 2023 Open Championship predictions
One huge shocker the model is calling for at the Open Championship 2023: Straka, who enters the weekend in third place at 4-under, stumbles down the stretch and doesn’t even crack the top 10. Straka is consistent off the tee, entering the week ranked 17th in total driving (120) and 20th in driving accuracy percentage (65.41%). He’s also been playing well in recent weeks, winning the John Deere Classic and securing a T-7 finish at the PGA Championship in May.
Straka’s biggest struggle is on the greens, where he ranks 123rd in putts per round (29.03) and 128th in one-putt percentage (39.04%). With Straka entering the weekend six strokes behind Harman, he’ll have to rely on his putter to make up the deficit. He’s not a strong pick to win it all and there are far better values in the Open Championship 2023 field.
Another surprise: Max Homa, a massive 45-1 longshot, makes a run at the title. Homa has a much better chance to win it all than his odds imply, so he’s a target for anyone looking for a huge payday.
Homa enters the third round at 1-under par, but he has the game to make up ground in a hurry. The 32-year-old has six wins on the PGA Tour, and he entered the 2023 Open Championship ranked inside the top 15 in several important statistical categories, including strokes gained: total (1.670), birdie average (4.29) and scoring average (69.45). If he’s striking the ball well this weekend, he’ll have a great shot at climbing the leaderboard at Royal Liverpool. See who else to pick here.
How to make 2023 Open Championship picks
The model is targeting three other golfers with odds of 25-1 or longer who will make surprising runs. Anyone who backs these longshots could hit it big. You can only see the model’s Open Championship picks here.
So who will win the Open Championship 2023, and which long shots stun the golfing world? Check out the 2023 Open Championship odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected 2023 Open Championship leaderboard, all from the model that’s nailed nine golf majors, including this year’s Masters.
2023 Open Championship weekend odds, field
See full Open Championship 2023 picks, best bets, and predictions here.
Brian Harman +150
Tommy Fleetwood +400
Rory McIlroy +1100
Jordan Spieth +1600
Jason Day +1800
Min Woo Lee +1800
Sepp Straka +1800
Cameron Young +2800
Wyndham Clark +3500
Max Homa +4500
Viktor Hovland +5000
Emiliano Grillo +8000
Hideki Matsuyama +9000
Shubhankar Sharma +10000
Nicolai Hojgaard +10000
Jon Rahm +10000
Tom Kim +10000
Adrian Otaegui +12500
Scottie Scheffler +12500
Cameron Smith +15000
Henrik Stenson +15000
Matthew Jordan +17500
Laurie Canter +20000
Xander Schauffele +20000
Tyrrell Hatton +20000
Thriston Lawrence +20000
Richard Bland +22500
Guido Migliozzi +25000
Matthew Southgate +25000
Antoine Rozner +25000