PONTE VEDRA BEACH, Fla. — The most significant event of the young PGA Tour season takes center stage this week as a field of 123 golfers descends upon TPC Sawgrass for the 2026 Players Championship. While the last couple of seasons have seen Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy leave no doubt at the PGA Tour’s flagship event, this year is poised to be a bit different.
The world No. 1 has not been the world beater he has positioned himself as over the last few events; Scheffler’s first-round woes have given way to concerns about ball striking. He was seen testing numerous new driver heads on the range at TPC Sawgrass while searching for an answer, eyeing his third Players title in the last four years.
At least Scheffler is on the driving range, though, as McIlroy announced on Monday that the same back injury that forced him out of the Arnold Palmer Invitational has kept him at home with time ticking by and the tournament approaching. McIlroy’s status remains up in the air as he seeks to become the second golfer to defend his Players title.
These questions leave the door wide open for someone else to walk through and claim the golden trophy. Collin Morikawa could mimic McIlroy’s 2025 and win at Pebble Beach and TPC Sawgrass before the major championship season gets underway. Those under the age of 26 are imposing their will on the tour with Chris Gotterup, Jacob Bridgeman, Akshay Bhatia and Ludvig Åberg all arriving in style.
Past major champions like Brooks Koepka, Justin Thomas and Justin Rose hope to find a swing thought or feel before play begins, while names like Jordan Spieth, Viktor Hovland and Russell Henley are quietly beginning to find their stride.
So, what is going to happen this week in Ponte Vedra Beach? Let’s take a look at a full set of predictions and picks from our CBS Sports experts.
2026 Players Championship expert picks, predictions
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Patrick McDonald, golf writer
Winner — Russell Henley (30-1): The last half-decade of Players Championships has produced a winner from inside the top 10 of the Official World Golf Rankings. A murderer’s row of champions. While Henley’s personality may not match that description, his game does. The world No. 6 is coming off a defense effort at the Arnold Palmer Invitational that resulted in a T6 finish and a weekend where he did not record a single bogey.
Sleeper — Ryan Gerard (70-1): He ranks eighth in total strokes gained, sixth in strokes gained approach and sits inside the top 25 in strokes gained tee to green over the last three months. Gerard continues to stack strong efforts, only to be hindered by his inabilities on the greens. This is a place where his tee-to-green excellence will allow him to contend. If his putter excels as well, he has the confidence to win the biggest championship of his career.
Top 10 lock — Collin Morikawa: There might not be a more confident golfer in the world right now. Morikawa enters this Players Championship following his win at Pebble Beach and top 10 finishes at Riviera and Bay Hill. The more difficult conditions will accentuate the two-time major champion’s skillset. He’s proven over this run that even without a high-end short game, he has the goods to finish on the first page of leaderboards.
Star who definitely won’t win — Rory McIlroy: Don’t love doing this but also don’t love the delay in coming to the property. He has a love-hate relationship with Florida golf throughout the years with last year’s championship landing on the “love” side of the spectrum. Before that, he had not finished inside the top 10 at The Players since his 2019 win.
Surprise prediction — Four of the top 10 players in the OWGR miss the cut: There are some questions atop the world of golf right now! Scheffler’s iron play has not been sensational. McIlroy arrives while fighting off a back injury. Rose has wilted since his win at Torrey Pines. Gotterup makes just his second championship appearance. Both Robert MacIntyre and Xander Schauffele are far from their best. Could four of them pack their bags early? It’s not the craziest thought.
Lowest round: 66 (-6)
Winning score: 276 (-12)
Winner’s Sunday score: 70 (-2)
Robby Kalland, golf writer
Winner — Si Woo Kim (22-1): Kim has a terrific history at TPC Sawgrass — including a win back in 2017 — and there’s no one on the PGA Tour hitting their irons better than he to start this season. He’s gaining nearly 1.2 strokes per round approaching the green over 25 rounds played this year, which is the best of any player with more than four rounds played. He’s been great off the tee as well (20th in strokes gained), and I do not believe there’s anyone in better form at the things that are most important at TPC Sawgrass right now than Kim.
Sleeper — Pierceson Coody (100-1): One of the best young ball-strikers on the PGA Tour, Coody can be hit or miss with the putter, but his ability tee-to-green will create an awful lot of good looks and could get him in the mix on the weekend. We’ll see if the putter can warm up enough to really contend, but he’s so solid off the tee (8th in strokes gained) and with his irons (34th) that his game should marry well with TPC Sawgrass.
Top 10 lock — Collin Morikawa (2-1): Speaking of ball-strikers, Morikawa is up there with Kim right now as players hitting the ball better than anyone else. He’s got his creativity back, which is needed at Sawgrass, and he seems to have gotten out of his head with his golf swing. Anticipate seeing his name on the first page of the leaderboard throughout the weekend.
Star who definitely won’t win — Ludvig Åberg (22-1): I know he played well last week at Bay Hill, but Åberg still plays with too much reckless abandon to win at The Players. TPC Sawgrass requires a certain level of patience to know where one can attack and where one needs to play conservatively, which Åberg just hasn’t shown. He could post a low round somewhere along the way when he’s in a great rhythm, but he’s not yet ready to string together the four rounds needed to win at Sawgrass.
Surprise prediction — Scottie Scheffler doesn’t finish in the top 10: The two-time winner of The Players has looked surprisingly mortal of late, particularly with his iron play. Scheffler is a shocking 88th in strokes gained approaching the green, a stat category he’s dominated over the past five years. Sawgrass isn’t the place to be trying to figure things out with your irons, and the distance control that made him such a dominant force has just not been there so far this season.
Lowest round: 64 (-8)
Winning score: 273 (-15)
Winner’s Sunday score: 69 (-3)
Who will win the 2026 Players Championship, and which longshots will stun the golfing world? Visit SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard, all from the model that’s nailed 16 golf majors heading into the weekend, and find out.