The 2025 U.S. Open returns to one of the greatest tests in all of golf: Oakmont Country Club. Taking great pride in standing as one of the toughest courses in the world, Oakmont and the USGA will be sure to turn up the intensity of the course for U.S. Open week.
Whoever lifts the U.S. Open trophy on Sunday night will have undoubtedly earned the crown, but the question coming into the tournament is whether we will continue seeing top stars winning major titles.
Scottie Scheffler (11/4 at BetMGM) is the overwhelming favorite to win his second consecutive major and add a third leg of the career grand slam. Bryson DeChambeau (8-1) has two U.S. Open victories, including a thrilling triumph in 2024 at Pinehurst No. 2; he is second on the odds sheet just ahead of the man he beat that Sunday, Rory McIlroy (11-1).
McIlroy’s odds have plummeted after a dreadful missed cut this past weekend at the RBC Canadian Open, and his form of late suggests he might not be as big of a threat at Oakmont as we expected earlier this year. Rounding out the breakaway top of the odds board is Jon Rahm (12-1), who finally returned to form as a major threat at Quail Hollow, pushing Scheffler deep into the back nine before an implosion on the final three holes.
While those four are the heavy favorites this week, Oakmont is a specific and exacting test. If they don’t show up in western Pennsylvania with their A-games, the door will be open for someone further behind who does.
What’s fascinating about Oakmont is that it truly allows for players of all types to thrive if you bring your best. The 2016 U.S. Open leaderboard featured a winner who was that year’s second-longest driver, Dustin Johnson, while the man who ranked 190th in that category, Jim Furyk, finished second in the field. Distance is undoubtedly a weapon at Oakmont, as it is at any course, but it’s relatively meaningless without accuracy given the incredibly penal rough and those that split the fairway consistently, even if further back, can still contend.
With that in mind, we’ll look at five players from further down the odds sheet who could find their way to the top of the leaderboard on Sunday and challenge the game’s top stars.
2025 U.S. Open sleeper picks
Odds via BetMGM
Ben Griffin (55-1): I’m not sure why you wouldn’t want to back the hottest golfer on the PGA Tour this side of Scheffler. Griffin has finished T8, 1st and 2nd in his last three events (PGA Championship, Charles Schwab Challenge, the Memorial), and it’s his performance at the Memorial that impressed most. That was an incredibly difficult golf course, and he showed an ability to score low (65 on Thursday) and not make catastrophic mistakes to stay in contention throughout the weekend. It didn’t result in a win as ultimately Scheffler passed him, but in terms of value, hard to beat 55-1 on a guy in this kind of form who has been doing it in big time events.
Maverick McNealy (80-1): McNealy is having a tremendous season with six top 10s, and while he’s never factored into the majors, I think Oakmont might be a pretty good fit for him — as much as Oakmont’s a good fit for anyone. I say that because he’s incredibly level-headed, utilizes a complete game and enters coming off a strong T5 at the Memorial, which I view as the closest thing these guys have seen to a U.S. Open test all season. We’ll see if that translates to a strong performance, but I project him as being in the mix on the weekend.
Harris English (100-1): Accuracy, ball-striking and consistency. Those are the three traits I’m seeking at Oakmont this week. English has them in spades. He’s one of the games premier flushers of the golf ball, remains accurate off the tee and possesses the kind of demeanor that should allow him to handle some of the bad breaks that are inevitable around a place like Oakmont. On top of that, he’s got the track record and recent form to boot with three top 10s at the U.S. Open in his career and a runner-up finish at the PGA Championship last month.
Daniel Berger (125-1): Berger has been trending in the right direction all year, and he’s 12th on the PGA Tour in driving accuracy this season while still boasting an average over 300 yards off the tee. That’s a real good combination at a place like Oakmont, and I would not be surprised if Berger is on the first page of the leaderboard on the weekend. At that point, it’s all about who can hold their nerve at a place like Oakmont, and like English, Berger has got the demeanor to roll with the punches and stay focused on his game plan.
Nick Taylor (150-1): Taylor is coming into this week in really good form after finishing 4th at the Memorial and T13 at the RBC Canadian Open, his home event. I like the way his game is trending, and while he’s one of the shorter hitters on the PGA Tour, he’s extremely accurate off of the tee. Taylor has been phenomenal as a ball-striker all year. If he can consistently stay in the short grass, he can give himself a chance on the weekend.
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