2025 U.S. Open at Oakmont Country Club will serve as ultimate litmus test for golf’s underdogs

OAKMONT, Pa. — It is one of the best windows in major championship golf. The sun starts to rise, crowds begin to form and tee shot after tee shot fly in the air signifying the start of the tournament. The stars have yet to meander into the meat of their rounds, but others out in front have put their best foot forward.

There’s always at least one random name on the leaderboard Thursday morning at a major. Remember who led after the first round at the 2024 Open Championship? Really think about it. Concentrate. Go back in time. Here’s a hint: He shares a name with a famous author. It was 30-year-old Dan Brown, of course. What about the last time the U.S. Open was held at Oakmont Country Club? Well, the honors then went to a short-hitting Andrew Landry … because why not.

These names have a way of popping up in the first round, but their balloons tend to pop by the time the tournaments reach the weekend. Gravity kicks in as the path from first-round glory to final-round prosperity tightens, especially in recent years. That has left some to believe that underdogs like Ben Curtis and Todd Hamilton are officially a thing of the past.

Yes, the game of golf has never been deeper, but at the same time, the top of the game has never been better. This is not just recency bias given the incredible run of major winners that reads, in order, Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, Bryson DeChambeau, Schauffele, Rory McIlroy and Scheffler over the last six such tournaments.

It’s been like this for a while. In fact, of the last 53 major championship winners, only one has been ranked outside the top 50 in the Official World Golf Rankings. That man was no stranger to the major stage or the winner’s circle. It was a 50-year-old Phil Mickelson at the 2021 PGA Championship who checked in at world No. 115. 

So, sure, maybe he was an underdog by definition, form, age and a whole myriad of reasons. But in stature? Certainly not. And while the results and run of winners confirm the lack of surprises, the numbers — especially ahead of this week’s U.S. Open — are ultimately the broad strokes.

Top five U.S. Open contenders

* Strokes gained per round over the last six months

At first glance, one might say there is an outlier in this group. Schauffele, who had to deal with a rib injury, took extended time away while getting healthier and just recently recovered some of his form. There are actually two, though.

The other is Scheffler, who is clipping the second-best player on this list by nearly three strokes per tournament and Rahm by nearly a half dozen. His play these last few years hurt underdogs’ hopes and dreams (as well as those of other really good players), and it is on the other side of a moat that is made up of DeChambeau, Rahm and McIlroy.

If Scheffler falters like he did at last year’s U.S. Open at Pinehurst No. 2, then you have DeChambeau. If he falls, then it’s Rahm, McIlroy and a healthy Schauffele. It’s wave of top-tier talent after top-tier talent — the type of names that those just outside the top 50 of the OWGR will struggle to contend against.

Nos. 51-55 in Official World Golf Rankings

* Strokes gained per round over the last six months

It’s not like these names are total nobodies. Vegas was leading for much of the PGA Championship this year, and he entered the winner’s circle last season. McCarty is a PGA Tour rookie who has already raised a trophy on his new circuit. Tom Kim can call himself a multiple-time winner, as can Echavarria. All that before the best player of the bunch (according to strokes gained), Michael Kim, is even mentioned. He’s playing some of the best golf of his career and has contended in signature events, but even his numbers are below that of someone like Schauffele, who has been far from his best.

If that does not showcase the divide, then it’s difficult to explain it otherwise.

It will take a great week from one player and a middling effort from the stars just to pull even given those sleeper-level contenders enter not even on the doorstop of major contention.

While numbers don’t like and recent results paint a bleak picture, the canvas provides outsiders some semblance of hope.

The U.S. Open has actually been friendly to first-time major winners this past decade. The list (in order) includes Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka, Gary Woodland, DeChambeau, Rahm, Matt Fitzpatrick and Wyndham Clark. Many have gone onto become big names and multiple-time major champions … but not necessarily all.

Factor in the venue, Oakmont Country Club, and the case for a first timer increases as past champions include Johnson, Angel Cabrera, Ernie Els, Johnny Miller and even, yes, Jack Nicklaus (over Arnold Palmer in 1962), who raised their first major trophies at this Western Pennsylvania site.

In sports — especially in golf — it is easy to get caught up in the moment, overreact and shout grand proclamations about the current happenings.

This does not feel like a moment but a stretch — a significant one at that. This week’s champion will likely come from one of those figures listed above. The alternative would be suprirsing.

Is the underdog dead? Let’s not completely jump to that conclusion just yet. After all, it’s part of the reason we watch sports — to see David conquer Goliath, the impossible becoming possible — and it’s exactly when you count a player or team out that they show signs of life and bite back.