It’s time for Xander Schauffele to win a big-time event. The 30-year-old has 11 top 10s in major championship and a T2 at The Players Championship but none of the five biggest titles on his resume. He is, ostensibly, one of the best players of his generation, but laying claim to that title without any of the trophies to back it up is mostly meaningless.
Schauffele shot an insane 65 on Saturday in which he was only average from tee to green. Most of his damage was done on and around the greens, highlighted by this 58-foot birdie putt on the par-4 14th, which helped him get to 17 under and jump past 36-hole leader Wyndham Clark.
But Schauffele has not always been the greatest closer. While his record of winning twice with six 54-hole PGA Tour leads is not bad, his play in those final round has been shaky. With a one-stroke lead over the reigning U.S. Open champion and three other major winners just behind Clark, there won’t be much room for error on Sunday. Schauffele will need to keep the pedal down.
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The talk in golf circles for years has been that Xander is That Guy. No holes in the game (empirically true), and you just can’t match the way he gets around golf courses. But to be That Guy, one has to have Those Wins, and The Players would be a great start for a guy who has arguably been the second-best player in the world to Scottie Scheffler this year.
It’s time for Schauffele to win his big event. He’s hitting it great, Clark didn’t run away Saturday, and everything has set up for Xander to go and get it done. Now, the hard part: getting it done.
If Schauffele (+130) doesn’t win — and Data Golf says there is a 52% chance he will not — here are the players who are most likely to surpass him.
1. Wyndham Clark (-16): Saturday was a war for the U.S. Open champion. He labored from tee to green but somehow squeezed a 70 out of the round to give himself a chance Sunday. His most impressive moment may have been making 4 at the par-3 17th after hitting quite possibly the worst tee shot I’ve ever seen about 20 yards short of the island green. Clark showed at the U.S. Open that he’s about as gritty and tough as they come, and he’s going to be a real problem for Schauffele, who has had trouble closing out leads. Clark, on the other hand, has been awesome when he’s been in the top two on the leaderboard after 54 holes. Odds: +300
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2. Brian Harman (-14): I love watching Harman go to work. He played the last two days in 15 under with 17 birdies and an eagle (which is insane). Only an opening 72 is keeping him from being at the top of this leaderboard along with Schauffele and Clark. He can absolutely run them down, though, and has the best chance to do so of all the chasers. One thing we know about Harman is that he’s not going to be scared with the chips down, and after watching him go 65-64 over the last two days, he might actually be the one to watch on Sunday. Odds: +550
3. Matt Fitzpatrick (-13): Fitzpatrick battled so hard after a slow start in Round 3, getting back to a place where he could at least threaten the top of the board. He birdied four of his last five holes; the only one he didn’t is the easiest hole on the course this week! I like how he’s hitting it (No. 1 in driving), but I don’t like that he’s down four to one of the five best players in the world. Odds: +1400
4. Scottie Scheffler (-12): The world’s No. 1 player has been dealing with a neck injury for much of the week. Despite that, he’s still — somewhat incredibly — top five in this field from tee to green. The problem for Scheffler is not that he can’t go out and shoot 66 on Sunday. It’s that he’s five back going in, and it’s unlikely that both Clark and Schauffele are going to play poorly enough in the final round for Scheffler to win his second Players in a row. Odds: +1100
5. Sahith Theegala (-12): Theegala was electric on Saturday, charging home hard and shooting a best-ball 59 with his playing partner, Harman. Both he and Scheffler — even though they’re in the top five — will have to be thinking 64 or better to win the tournament. That’s going to be fun because they’re both capable of it, but the odds of it happening with the caliber of player ahead of them are not high. Odds: +3500
6. Maverick McNealy (-13): I generally love McNealy, and he’s a ton of fun to watch. But the way he’s doing it is not sustainable. He gained nearly six strokes around the greens on Saturday and holed out from all over the yard. That won’t happen again, and he’s likely to fall off the pace. Nobody at the top of this board is hitting worse approach shots than he is so far this week. Odds: +2800
Rick Gehman and Greg DuCharme recap the second round of The Players Championship at TPC Sawgrass. Follow & listen to The First Cut on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.