Phil Mickelson has been the definition of a boom-or-bust golfer in his eight major tournaments since 2020. The 52-year-old is coming off finishing second at the Masters on April 9 and became the oldest golfer to finish in the top two at a major. He became the oldest golfer to win a major when he won the 2021 PGA Championship, but in his other six majors during that span, he finished 55th, 71st, and missed the cut four times. What type of Mickelson can golf fans expect to see at the 2023 PGA Championship at Oak Hill Country Club starting on Thursday? Mickelson is an 85-1 longshot to win according to the latest 2023 PGA Championship odds at Caesars Sportsbook.
Jon Rahm and Scott Scheffer, the top two ranked golfers in the world, are the 7-1 co-favorites to defeat the 2023 PGA Championship field. Rory McIlroy has the next lowest PGA Championship odds 2023 at 11-1, followed by Patrick Cantlay and Brooks Koepka at 18-1. Before locking in your 2023 PGA Championship picks or entering any PGA DFS tournaments on sites like DraftKings and FanDuel, be sure to see the golf predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
Our proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been red-hot since the PGA Tour resumed in June of 2020. In fact, the model is up over $8,800 on its best bets since the restart, nailing tournament after tournament.
McClure’s model predicted Jon Rahm would finish on top of the leaderboard at the 2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions and The American Express. At the 2023 Masters, the model was all over Rahm’s second career major victory heading into the weekend. Rahm was two strokes off the lead heading into the third round, but the model still projected him as the winner.
In addition, the model included Nick Hardy and Davis Riley in its best bets to win the 2023 Zurich Classic. That bet hit at +4500, and for the entire tournament, McClure’s best bets returned over $1,100. McClure’s best bets also included J.T. Poston winning outright at the 2022 John Deere Classic, even though he was listed as a massive 55-1 longshot, and Jason Day winning the 2023 AT&T Byron Nelson, even though he hadn’t won a PGA Tour event since 2018.
This same model has also nailed a whopping nine majors entering the weekend. Anyone who has followed it has seen massive returns.
Now that the 2023 PGA Championship is approaching, SportsLine simulated the tournament 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard.
2023 PGA Championship predictions for Jordan Spieth, Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm
One shocker the model is calling for at the PGA Championship 2023: Rory McIlroy, a four-time major champion, stumbles big-time and doesn’t even crack the top 10. Since the calendar flipped to 2023, McIlroy has only competed in elevated events, which can help gauge how he’ll perform against elite fields. Across his six stroke play events, he has just one top-25 and has finished 47th or worse over his last three stroke-play tournaments.
McIlroy has struggled with both iron play and with his putter, compared to last year when he had top-10 finishes at all four majors. He ranked 12th in greens in regulation percentage a year ago and 16th in strokes gained putting. In 2023, he ranks 172nd in both statistics. Coming off a missed cut at the Masters, McIlroy’s game is not where it needs to be to contend for another major, making him one to fade in PGA Championship 2023 bets. See who else to fade here.
The model has also locked in its projection for three-time major champion Jordan Spieth, who finished second in the 2015 PGA Championship and is one win away from a career grand slam. Spieth came out of the gate hot after a short but impressive stint at the University of Texas, winning the 2015 Masters and 2015 U.S. Open before his 22nd birthday. He earned an Open Championship victory in 2017 at Royal Birkdale and at the time was considered a shoo-in to join golf’s elite with a victory in all four majors.
However, Spieth went nearly four years without a victory before finally earning a 12th PGA Tour win at the 2021 Valero Texas Open. He followed that up with a win in the 2022 RBC Heritage and has climbed up to No. 10 in the world after falling to as low as 92nd in 2021. Spieth has a runner-up finish and a third place at the PGA Championship, but he’s finished 30th or worse in his last three starts in this event. See where every golfer finishes here.
On the other hand, the model has also examined Jon Rahm’s chances to win his second major championship of the season. The 28-year-old ended 2022 ranked No. 5 in the world, but has since moved to No. 1 with four wins and eight top-10 finishes in 12 events this season. He won the 2023 Masters by four strokes with a 12-under, the largest margin of victory at the Masters since Dustin Johnson won in 2020.
Rahm leads the PGA Tour in total strokes gained (2.625) and scoring average (68.629). He doesn’t have many holes in his game, ranking 10th in driving distance (312.1), second in strokes gained tee to green (1.882) and second in putting average (1.681). But Rahm hasn’t competed since April 30, so rust could play a factor. In addition, Rahm hasn’t performed well at the PGA Championship. It’s the only one of the four majors he has yet to finish in the top three. Rahm has finished in the top 15 three times and outside the top 45 in three of his six PGA Championships. See the full PGA Championship projections from the model here.
How to make 2023 PGA Championship picks
The model is targeting three golfers with odds longer than 20-1 who will make surprising runs. Anyone who backs these longshots could hit it big. You can only see the model’s 2023 PGA Championship picks here.
Who will win the 2023 PGA Championship, which longshots will stun the golfing world, and where will Jon Rahm and Rory McIlroy finish? Check out the latest 2023 PGA Championship odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected PGA Championship 2023 leaderboard, all from the model that has nailed nine golf majors, including the Masters.
2023 PGA Championship odds, field
Jon Rahm 7-1
Scottie Scheffler 7-1
Rory McIlroy 11-1
Patrick Cantlay 18-1
Brooks Koepka 18-1
Justin Thomas 20-1
Dustin Johnson 20-1
Jason Day 20-1
Xander Schauffele 22-1
Collin Morikawa 22-1
Tony Finau 25-1
Cameron Young 25-1
Viktor Hovland 28-1
Jordan Spieth 28-1
Max Homa 28-1
Matthew Fitzpatrick 30-1
Cameron Smith 30-1
Sungjae Im 35-1
Tyrrell Hatton 40-1
Joonhyung (Tom) Kim 40-1
Talor Gooch 40-1
Sam Burns 40-1
Hideki Matsuyama 45-1
Patrick Reed 60-1
Shane Lowry 60-1
Adam Scott 65-1
Keegan Bradley 65-1
Rickie Fowler 65-1
Sahith Theegala 65-1
Tommy Fleetwood 70-1
Wyndham Clark 701
Justin Rose 75-1
Joaquin Niemann 75-1
Abraham Ancer 80-1
Phil Mickelson 85-1
K.H. Lee 90-1
Corey Conners 90-1
Bryson DeChambeau 90-1
Nicolai Hojgaard 100-1
Seamus Power 100-1
Rasmus Hojgaard 100-1
Russell Henley 100-1
Lucas Herbert 100-1
Harris English 100-1
Mito Pereira 100-1
Billy Horschel 125-1
Chris Kirk 125-1
Kurt Kitayama 125-1
Min Woo Lee 125-1
Gary Woodland 125-1
Davis Riley 125-1
Si-Woo Kim 125-1
Robert Macintyre 125-1
Denny McCarthy 125-1
Christiaan Bezuidenhout 125-1
Matt Wallace 150-1
Webb Simpson 150-1
Paul Casey 150-1
Matt Kuchar 150-1
Nick Hardy 150-1
Anirban Lahiri 150-1
Aaron Wise 150-1
Harold Varner 150-1
Tom Hoge 150-1
Adrian Meronk 150-1
Keith Mitchell 175-1
Adam Hadwin 175-1
Victor Perez 175-1
Brian Harman 175-1
Alex Noren 175-1
Jordan Smith 175-1
Dean Burmester 175-1
Taylor Moore 175-1
Ryan Fox 200-1
Thriston Lawrence 200-1
Thomas Detry 200-1
Taylor Montgomery 200-1
Kevin Kisner 200-1
JJ Spaun 200-1
Cam Davis 200-1
Francesco Molinari 200-1
Thomas Pieters 200-1
Pabblo Larrazabal 200-1
Taylor Pendrith 200-1
Yannik Paul 200-1
Joel Dahmen 225-1
Luke List 225-1
Adam Svensson 225-1
Mackenzie Hughes 225-1
Matthew NeSmith 225-1
Thorbjorn Olesen 250-1
Maverick McNealy 250-1
Brendan Steele 250-1
Beau Hossler 250-1
Adri Arnaus 250-1
Emiliano Grillo 250-1
Ockie Strydom 250-1
Sepp Straka 250-1
Patrick Rodgers 250-1
Brandon Wu 275-1
JT Poston 300-1
Brendon Todd 300-1
Alex Smalley 300-1
Hayden Buckley 300-1
Andrew Putnam 300-1
Ben Griffin 300-1
Sam Horsfield 300-1
Scott Stallings 300-1
Nick Taylor 350-1
Ben Taylor 350-1
Mark Hubbard 350-1
Justin Suh 350-1
Davis Thompson 350-1
Chez Reavie 350-1
Danny Willett 350-1
Jimmy Walker 350-1
Callum Shinkwin 350-1
Padraig Harrington 350-1
Sam Ryder 350-1
Rikuya Hoshino 500-1
Callum Tarren 500-1
Luke Donald 500-1
Sihwan Kim 500-1
Trey Mullinax 500-1
David Lingmerth 500-1
Sadom Kaewkanjana 500-1
Kazuki Higa 500-1
Zach Johnson 500-1
David Micheluzzi 500-1
Adam Schenk 500-1
Nico Echavarria 500-1
Steven Alker 750-1
Shaun Micheel 2000-1
John Daly 2000-1
Y.E. Yang 2000-1