While the big story on the weekend will be who wins the 2023 3M Open, understandably dominating headlines Friday is who will not even be playing the weekend. Justin Thomas followed his opening-round 69 on Thursday with a 71 on Friday to shoot 2 under over the first 36 holes and miss the weekend by two strokes. Certainly a disappointing outcome for somebody looking to find some magic late in the season.
Thomas made two double bogeys that upended his chances at the weekend. Following the second one, which came on his 13th hole of the day, he ripped off three consecutive birdies, followed by a bogey and another birdie to close out the second round. It was an insane run at the cut line, which settled at 4 under.
Unfortunately for Thomas, it’s his fifth missed cut in his last seven tournaments, and his odds of making either the FedEx Cup Playoffs (he came in 75th, and the top 70 make it) or the United States’ Ryder Cup team (he is not currently inside the top 12 in the standings) are dwindling.
Thomas has played in the Tour Championship seven years in a row and represented the U.S. well in the last two Ryder Cups with a combined 6-2-1 record.
It’s long been my contention that, if J.T. is playing even moderately well, he should be on the U.S. team in Rome. However, this last month has tested that theory.
There are a lot of issues with his game right now, which is a strange (but true) statement to make about someone that talented and successful. Barring a miraculous run at next week’s Wyndham Championship to push him into the playoffs, it appears as if his Ryder Cup chances are likely over.
This would have been ludicrous to suggest even three months ago, but that’s how poor Thomas’ performances have been since March. In 11 starts since the Valspar Championship, he has one top 10, two top 20s and now six missed cuts. For some pros, that’s a nice stretch. For J.T., though, it’s a nearly unimaginable run that could end with his worst FedEx Cup finish since joining the PGA Tour.
A few players have found magic thus far at TPC Twin Cities with Lee Hodges (-15) leading a handful of golfers at double digits under par or better. Let’s take a closer look at Round 2 and what to expect over the final 36.
The leader
1. Lee Hodges (-15): Hodges backed up his 63 with a nearly as impressive 64 in Round 2. After making birdie at the final two holes of his round, Hodges has a four-stroke lead over Tyler Duncan and five on the rest of the field. he is currently in the top 20 in strokes gained off the tee, on approach, from tee to green and with his putter. Those are extraordinary numbers that will be difficult to maintain over the next two days.
However, Hodges has been playing solid golf of late. It’s true that he only has one top 10 since April, but it’s he finished T12 at both the Memorial and Scottish Open, both of which had big-boy fields. He’s a good player who absolutely can win this golf tournament. Hodges has yet to make a bogey, though, so I’ll be watching this weekend how he handles some adversity when he is undoubtedly faced with it as the rest of this field aims to chase him down.
Other contenders
2. Tyler Duncan (-11)
T3. Kevin Streelman, J.T. Poston, Tony Finau, Brandt Snedeker (-10)
T7. Emiliano Grillo, David Lipsky, Billy Horschel, J.J. Spaun (-9)
Finau is the scary one from this group after a round quite opposite to the one he played on Thursday. In Round 1, he was 6 under through six holes. In Round 2, he was 2 over through four. Finau rebounded with eight birdies in his last 14, though, and is rewarded with a late tee time on a weekend where he needs it. He has his eyes on a FedEx Cup Playoffs run as well as a last-minute Ryder Cup spot, and a win this week at a place where he won this time last year would go a long way.
“I think that’s a good spot to be,” Finau said of his T3 position. “Last year, I was in a similar position I think all week, 3-5 shots back going into the weekend, something like that. Again, the golf course is yielding birdies. I have to limit the mistakes on the weekend. I made probably a couple too many these first couple days, but if I can do that, I think I’ll have a shot.”
2023 3M Open updated odds and picks
Odds via Caesars Sportsbook
- Lee Hodges: 7/5
- Tony Finau: 6-1
- J.T. Poston: 11-1
- Emiliano Grillo: 14-1
- Hideki Matsuyama: 18-1
- Tyler Duncan: 18-1
- Kevin Streelman: 20-1
I actually like Matsuyama here. He’s flushed the golf ball over the first two days and gotten almost nothing out of it. He’s only seven back of the lead but only three back of second, which is next to nothing for a ball-striker like him to make up. Hodges is in a good spot with the way he’s hitting the ball, but 7/5 is a tough number to take on at this point. There’s more value in Matsuyama at 16-1 or even somebody like Vincent Norrman (-7) at 125-1; he is seventh from tee to green thus far and in a great position to make a bit of a run on the weekend.